Now that the ‘CT is winding down and surfers on the Tour have more or less secured their provisional spots, we’re starting to have a vague idea of which surfers, from which nations, will head to Tokyo. Surfers from Australia, Brazil and the United States are all easy shoo-ins, and will definitely be waving the flags of their respective countries next year. Which is no surprise really, as those three nations–plus France, Japan, South Africa and more–have produced top-ranked ‘CT-ers each year for the past decade.
But what about surfers from less popular surf nations? After the ‘CT spots are filled, will we see Olympic competitors from countries not normally represented at WSL events? Will we see a surfer representing, say, Nepal or Chad in a heat against surf stars like Kolohe Andino or Jordy Smith?
Of the 20 male and 20 female spots slotted for the 2020 games, about 28 are pretty well slated. Technically, however, there could be more musical chairs should any serious upsets take place on the ‘CT. Take a breath; here’s where things get complicated.
The first thing to keep in mind is that 10 men’s seats and 8 women’s seats are saved for the top-ranked athletes on the WSL’s ‘CT (with a maximum 2 spots per country, per gender), which takes precedence over all of the other qualifying events (the 2019 Pan Am Surfing Games, and the 2019 and 2020 ISA World Surfing Games).
After filling the ‘CT spots, two spots (one man, one women) will be given to the winners of the 2019 Pan American Games in Peru. The 2019 ISA World Surfing Games, held in Miyakazi, Japan, secured provisional seats for one male and one female surfer from Africa, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. And finally, the 2020 ISA World Surfing Games, set to take place next May, will determine 5 more men’s seats and 7 more women’s. By end of spring next year, we’ll know exactly who will heading to the 2020 Olympic Games at Shidashita Beach, which sits about 40 miles outside of Tokyo.
But for now, let’s break down who has qualified so far via each channel and which surfers, from which nations, still have a solid shot at Olympic qualification:
THE ‘CT
Currently, as it stands in the men’s division, Italo Ferreira and Gabriel Medina sit on top, and if Filipe fails to overtake them on the leaderboard at Pipe, Italo and Gabby will take Brazil’s two spots.
Jordy Smith, currently sitting in 3rd, will hold a spot for South Africa, Kolohe Andino (in 5th) will represent the US and Kanoa Igarashi will take up one seat for Japan (which is also guaranteed, with Japan being the host country for the 2020 games). Australia could be represented by any of the following: Owen Wright (7th), Julian Wilson (11) Ryan Callinan (12) or Wade Charmichael (13), depending on how the last event shakes up.
John John Florence (in 8th place) has been teasing us about returning for the Pipe Masters to put the nail in the coffin of his Olympic bid and secure that second U.S spot, which, according to certain Instagram posts, seems he is very much ready to do. Kelly Slater (10th) and Seth Moniz (12th), however, still have the chance to surpass John at Pipe, should he return.
Jeremy Flores (9th) has provisionally qualified for France, and if things don’t shift too much on the rankings, we could see Michel Bourez (15th) taking France’s second and final seat. Granted, a lot of this could be turned on its head with Pipe still ahead.
Photo Credit: Ryan Craig
On the women’s front, there will also be about 10 nations represented, though remember that there are only 8 qualification slots on the women’s ‘CT. Carissa Moore is just about set to represent the US of A, but with Lakey Peterson (2nd) and Caroline Marks (3rd) right at her heels, and the lululemon Maui Pro (the 10th and final stop of the ‘CT) still set to take place this week, both seats could be a total toss-up. Marks could potentially edge her way past Peterson—and maybe Moore, too.
Sally Fitzgibbons (4th) and Stephanie Gilmore (5th), have Australia’s spots provisionally squared away, while Brazilian-American Tatiana Weston-Webb (7th), will be repping Brazil at the 2020 Olympics. Behind Weston-Webb is Johanne Defay (8th), looking to hold a seat for France. The final spot looks like it could go to Brisa Hennessey (10th), from Costa Rica or Silvana Lima from Brazil.
2019 Pan American Games
The 2019 Pan American Games, which took place in Lima and acted as the Americas’ (both north and south) qualifier, saw Peru’s own Lucca Messinas and Daniella Rosas secure spots in the men’s and women’s divisions, respectively. Since the nation doesn’t have any surfers on the ‘CT at the moment, it looks like both Messinas and Rosas have locked in spots for Peru on the men’s and women’s fronts. On top of that, Sofia Mulanovich now stands a pretty good chance of edging her way in, too, after winning gold on Peru’s behalf at the 2019 ISA World Games in Japan.
2019 ISA World Surfing Games
The 2019 ISA World Surfing Games took place at Miyazaki Beach in Japan (and served as something of a tester for the 2020 Olympics), and established provisional seats for Africa, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. The top-ranked men from each region were, respectively, Ramji Boukhaim (Morocco), Shun Murakami (Japan), Billy Stairmand (New Zealand) and Frederico Morais (Portugal). Ramzi Boukhiam, who is currently sitting 90th on the ‘QS, has competed on the ‘CT level twice–finishing right behind Kelly Slater in 2011 at the Quik Pro France and behind Mick Fanning in 2013.
Potential seats on the women’s side were earned by Shino Matsuda (Japan), Anat Lelior (Israel), Bianca Buitendag (South Africa), and Ella Williams (New Zealand). The only way the first three of four women don’t make the Tokyo Olympics would be if each are outperformed by two women in their country at the 2020 ISA Games. The same applies to Ella as well, but Paige Hareb (currently sitting No. 16 on the ‘CT) still technically has a shot at qualifying via the ‘CT and nabbing one of those NZ spots.
What we really might not have expected was to see Israel among the list of surf nations represented at the Olympics. Sure, Israel gets surf, but nothing like, say, France, Portugal or Spain and there are no Israeli surfers on the ‘CT, nor have there ever been. But Anat Lelior, a 19-year-old female up-and-comer out of Tel Aviv who currently sits in the 47th position on the ‘QS, stands to do some damage at the 2020 games, especially after winning the Deeply Pro Anglet in France this past summer.
Other countries without much presence on the ‘CT that have had strong runners at the ISA Games in the past few years have been Barbados (particularly in the form of Chelsea Tuach), Venezuela and Scotland—all places with surf, but also places from which we haven’t seen much in the way of well-known competitive surfers.
As of now, at least 11 nations are fairly sure to be represented. The rest, though, is nothing more than speculation. There are still many spots to be determined next May at the 2020 ISA World Surfing Games. But until then, we really won’t know much more. And who knows? Maybe another underdog nation could squeak through and wave their flag proudly in Tokyo.
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