Seems like we’ve seen a ton of Teahupo’o this year. More than normal?
The storm track in this area of the world has been quite active this season (above average), especially the Southwest Pacific. Nothing as crazy as Code Red — although the swell on Aug 17th had occasional glimpses of that — but there’s been a high consistency of pulses in the range of medium to large with a handful going XL throughout the season (aside from a little half-time break in the second-half of July.) In addition, many of the storms this season have been well aimed toward the north. (Both of those factors are the main reasons why Hawaii is also seeing a fantastic season.)
Read More: Mechanics of Teahupoo
What makes Tues/Wed swell special?
Solid, WSW swell shooting over the top of New Zealand toward Tahiti — at least with much significance — is pretty rare. Tahiti does receive WSW swells more often than most would think, but it usually arrives as just minor background energy lost under much more dominant SW or SSW swells that spawn from under and on the east side of New Zealand. The last time we saw a sizable WSW swell line up for the Tahiti Pro was over 10 years ago, back in 2008, which delivered some well overhead sets.
Teahupoo’s swell window.
Due to the geographic location of Australia and New Zealand, along with the dominant presence of high pressure over Australia, the storm track in this region stays primarily in the lower latitudes through the Southern Ocean. Every once in a while, we’ll get a storm that’s either big enough or moves north enough in the Tasman Sea to set up a fetch over 237° for Tahiti (which is blocked between 237-220° by New Zealand), like what just happened. Many times storms will pop over the top of New Zealand, but they are usually weakening by then or simply don’t hold a good enough fetch for Tahiti. And sometimes, we’ll get a strong enough storm that develops north enough in latitude in the Southwest Pacific, but it also needs to be close to New Zealand’s North Island or higher to generate a more westerly angled SW swell. For the swell we’re seeing right now, we actually had a case of both scenarios – a strong, high latitude storm that pushed out swell from both the Tasman Sea and Southwest Pacific.
Note location of storm in relation to New Zealand.
Is a west swell more difficult to surf than a southwest swell? Why?
In short – yes. That is because of the heaviness and hollowness of the West Bowl, which can be tricky to read or make the drop. There will also be a greater share of waves running off too quickly to make and closing out — especially when taking off deeper on the reef. Due to the configuration of the reef at Teahupo’o (local bathymetry) and direction the spot faces, more westerly angled swells will square up more to this corner of the reef pass — swells approach more directly instead of sweeping along it like on a south swell. And this factor is amplified further with longer period energy, that’ll move faster and refract from the deep water of the channel to a greater degree.
Teahupoo’s bathymetry.
Kelly said he may go right. Will there be rights?
The potential certainly looks very promising for an occasional surfable right further up the reef more, which the highest chances for that would be either Monday evening or Tuesday morning with the dominant angle being more westerly. The dominant angle will be slowly shifting over Tuesday from WSW to SW (eventually within 230-210°). The chances for going right should decrease significantly by Wednesday.
Going right? Photo: Jeremiah Klein
Are there any other challenges in running an event in a solid west swell?
Safety, for both the guys surfing it (as explained in question #3) and the boats in the channel. The West Bowl is expected to be heavy, which breaks all too close to the channel. Furthermore, a west swell can create reverse rips that actually pull back toward the impact zone. Everyone in the water should be extra cautious.
Photo: Jeremiah Klein
How big is it going to get and when?
Tuesday morning will see double overhead-plus sets with the bigger waves eventually pushing up to the triple overhead mark by midday (if not sooner) and continuing all afternoon. Sets still hitting double overhead on Wednesday.
Will there be big lulls?
Expecting a fairly consistent swell, so there shouldn’t be any big lulls. Although the storm (when it redeveloped just east of New Zealand) didn’t really march straight at Tahiti while at its strongest, it was fairly close (within 1800 miles away). Overall, I’d give it a fair-to-good consistency.
How about conditions?
Expecting clean conditions with offshore wind. Going a little side-offshore for some of Tuesday morning, then veering more easterly and straight offshore over the afternoon, and especially on Wednesday with ENE flow.
How long will it last?
The swell will be strongest on Tuesday – especially midday through the afternoon, then starting to ease Wednesday. Overall, pretty much a two day banger with size and conditions all lining up.
Photo: Jeremiah Klein
Tahiti Pro Teahupo’o pres. by Hurley Round of 32 Matchups:
Heat 1: Kanoa Igarashi (JPN) vs. Jadson Andre (BRA)
Heat 2: Adrian Buchan (AUS) vs. Deivid Silva (BRA)
Heat 3: Owen Wright (AUS) vs. Soli Bailey (AUS)
Heat 4: Michel Bourez (FRA) vs. Sebastian Zietz (HAW)
Heat 5: Italo Ferreira (BRA) vs. Adriano de Souza (BRA)
Heat 6: Joan Duru (FRA) vs. Willian Cardoso (BRA)
Heat 7: Jordy Smith (ZAF) vs. Ricardo Christie (NZL)
Heat 8: Julian Wilson (AUS) vs. Yago Dora (BRA)
Heat 9: Kolohe Andino (USA) vs. Kauli Vaast (FRA)
Heat 10: Wade Carmichael (AUS) vs. Jeremy Flores (FRA)
Heat 11: Ryan Callinan (AUS) vs. Griffin Colapinto (USA)
Heat 12: Gabriel Medina (BRA) vs. Ezekiel Lau (HAW)
Heat 13: Filipe Toledo (BRA) vs. Jesse Mendes (BRA)
Heat 14: Seth Moniz (HAW) vs. Peterson Crisanto (BRA)
Heat 15: Conner Coffin (USA) vs. Caio Ibelli (BRA)
Heat 16: Kelly Slater (USA) vs. Jack Freestone (AUS)
Resources for Teahupoo, Tahiti
South Tahiti Expert Human Forecast
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